Fire danger is high today, and all permits for open burning have been postponed throughout La Plata County.

“We’re expecting the winds to start at around 11 a.m., so we just don’t even want to allow people to start early because we can’t be sure we can get them out completely in time,” said Fire Marshal Karola Hanks with the Durango Fire Protection District.

A red-flag warning was issued by the National Weather Service because of dry fuels, relative low humidity – expected to be between 9 and 14 percent – and winds, with gusts ranging from 25 to 30 mph.

“Thursday is looking like another potential red-flag day, with even higher winds than Wednesday,” said Joe Ramey, a meteorologist with the Grand Junction Office of the weather service. “And we may have even another one as we move into Friday.”

The weather service uses two different predictive models, one created in the U.S. and the second designed in Europe.

“The American model doesn’t show any moisture headed your way,” he said. “But the European model shows moisture from the Pacific coming for the weekend, with 25 percent chance on Saturday and 40 percent on Sunday; so right now, let’s think European.”

Today is the second high fire danger day for the 2014 season.

“It seems a little early, but not crazy early,” Ramey said. “It’s on the early side for what is normal in Western Colorado, whatever normal is.”

The concern is with a lower-than-normal snowpack – 87 percent as of Tuesday – and warm, dry winds, this is only the beginning of a long, dry season.

“If you draw a line from Silverton to Seattle, everything to the north and east of it is above-average moisture,” Ramey said. “And everything south and west of it – that’s you – is below average.”

Hanks said when the ground temperature is 80 degrees and the relative humidity is 20 percent or lower, a cigarette flicked out a window can start a fire. That ground temperature is common on a 70-degree day.