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Gubernatorial polls are miles apart

Quinnipiac says Beauprez leads by 10; another says it’s guv by 2

DENVER – Dueling polls released Wednesday highlight uncertainty in Colorado’s race for governor.

A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday has Gov. John Hickenlooper trailing Republican challenger Bob Beauprez by 10 points.

But the survey wasn’t the only poll released Wednesday. Other favorable polls have Hickenlooper up by as much as 7 points.

The Quinnipiac poll found Hickenlooper scores low on honesty, caring and leadership. Hickenlooper trails among all likely voters 50-40 percent, according to the poll.

Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy each have 3 percent. Not mentioned was unaffiliated candidate Mike Dunafon.

“Pundits were predicting that Gov. Hickenlooper faced a close race for re-election,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll. “Instead, he’s got a mad dash to make up a double-digit deficit.”

Women are divided, with 47 percent for Beauprez and 46 percent for Hickenlooper. Men back the Republican former congressman 54 to 34 percent.

Seventy-seven percent of voters say their minds are made up, while 22 percent say they could be persuaded in the next seven weeks, according to the poll.

By a 49-31 percent margin, Colorado voters have a favorable opinion of Beauprez. Hickenlooper, however, has a negative 43-51 percent favorability, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

Fifty-two percent of voters say that Beauprez is honest and trustworthy, compared to 48 percent for Hickenlooper.

Fifty-one percent of voters said Beauprez cares about their needs and problems, compared to 48 percent for Hickenlooper.

Voters also believe in Beauprez’s leadership qualities, according to the poll, with 59 percent saying he demonstrates strong leadership, compared to 51 percent for the governor.

Republicans have made leadership a centerpiece of the campaign, questioning Hickenlooper’s ability to take decisive actions.

But the Quinnipiac poll indicates Coloradans are more concerned with jobs and the economy, with 39 percent of Colorado voters saying it is the most important issue. Seventeen percent say energy, the environment and education are the most important issues, and 15 percent point to gun policy.

“Claudia and I are grateful for the support we’re getting from people across Colorado, and this poll simply confirms what we’re hearing on the ground – voters want a strong leader with character who’ll stand up for Colorado and make the tough decisions to help our state,” Beauprez said in a statement after the release of the poll. “Our state desperately needs stronger leadership, and with 48 days left to go, we are not going to let this or any other poll distract us from getting the job done and giving Colorado the leadership it deserves. We are going to run like we’re behind.”

But Project New America, a left-leaning research and consulting firm, released a separate poll Wednesday showing Hickenlooper up by 7 points. They questioned the accuracy of the Quinnipiac poll, suggesting that it is way off from other surveys.

“Voters see ... Gov. Hickenlooper in a favorable light, even after the millions of dollars outside groups like the Koch brothers and RGA have spent,” said Jill Hanauer, president of Project New America.

The Project New America poll found that voters have positive impressions of Hickenlooper, with 44 percent expressing “warm, favorable feelings,” and 39 percent expressing “cool, unfavorable feelings.”

In contrast, negative impressions outweigh positive ones for Beauprez by 4 points, with 34 percent expressing “cool, negative feelings” and 30 percent expressing “warm, positive feelings.”

Also on Wednesday, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found that Hickenlooper is at 43 percent, while Republican challenger Bob Beauprez is at 41 percent.

A Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll last week had the governor up by 2 points. And a recent NBC/Marist poll showed Hickenlooper up by 4 points.

“There are a few outlier polls every cycle, and that’s what this is,” Eddie Stern, a Hickenlooper spokesman, said of the Quinnipiac survey. “No one really believes this poll. Other polls show the governor with a lead, which is probably why the Republican Governors Association cut off the congressman’s campaign as a bad investment.”

A spokesman for the RGA would not discuss plans with The Durango Herald when asked Tuesday. But sources said the organization has pulled its media buy for Colorado.

Bob Loevy, a retired Colorado College political science professor, said Hickenlooper could be facing pushback from voters who are frustrated with President Barack Obama, a fellow Democrat.

“Given that it’s the sixth year of a presidential administration and that the general result is usually a wave of support for candidates not in the president’s party ... we would be expecting a Republican wave,” said Loevy. “(Hickenlooper) has to take it seriously.”

pmarcus@durangoherald.com



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