WASHINGTON The Federal Reserves plan to buy more Treasury bonds has incited critics at home to complain about inevitable high inflation and financial turmoil.
It turns out many foreigners are pretty angry, too. They say the Feds $600 billion program is a scheme to give U.S. exporters an unfair edge one that endangers the global economy.
Is it? Or is the Feds plan a credible way to help end a desperate jobs crisis and revitalize a still-tepid economy?
In either case, few dispute that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is taking a gamble. Whether or not his plan succeeds in aiding the U.S. economy, it risks triggering a trade war and encouraging dangerous speculation in financial markets.
Already, the finger-pointing threatened to wreck last weeks summit of world leaders in Seoul, where the Feds plan set off vociferous debate. President Barack Obama on Thursday was forced to defend U.S. policies at the summit, saying the most important thing that the United States can do for the world economy is to grow.
Many economists say the Fed didnt have much choice not with U.S. unemployment stalled at 9.6 percent, short-term interest rates already near zero and Congress refusing to spend more to jolt the economy.
Theyve run out of bullets, says Uri Dadush, director of the international economics program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
So the Fed announced plans to print enough money to buy an average of $75 billion in Treasury bonds each month for eight months. And it left the door open for more. The bond-purchase program is intended to energize the economy by forcing down long-term interest rates. Those lower rates might encourage some consumers and businesses to borrow and spend more.
Will the Feds program do that?
Not likely, its critics say. For one thing, mortgage rates have dipped to record lows without reviving the housing market, reducing high unemployment or stimulating much growth. Would people and businesses that cant or wont borrow now at super-low rates start borrowing if interest rates on loans dip a bit more and borrow enough to rejuvenate the economy?
A bigger hope is that lower rates will lift stock prices. Thats because, as Bernanke has suggested, investors will shift money out of low-yielding bonds and into stocks. Higher stock prices make people feel wealthier and more willing to spend.
Business leaders are no different. They become more confident when their personal wealth rises and when their companys stock goes up. Theyre more likely to hire and expand. Once they do, the economy strengthens.
Yet the Feds move threatens to inflame global tensions. Thats because of what happens when it prints more dollars to lower interest rates: More dollars flooding the financial system will cause the dollars value to fall. That will make U.S. products cheaper around the world. It will make foreign goods costlier in the United States. Americans will be less likely to buy foreign products.
Economies such as Germany and China, which have ridden a wave of exports out of the recession, complain that the Feds main goal is to lower the dollars value to give U.S. exporters an unfair price advantage. They call the move hypocritical because Washington has long complained that Beijing keeps its currency, the yuan, artificially low to boost Chinese exports.
In September, the U.S. trade deficit with China amounted to $27.8 billion. Thats just short of Augusts record high. And it exceeds the U.S. trade gap with the rest of the world combined.
Critics warn that rates kept too low for too long could inflate new bubbles in the prices of commodities, stocks and other assets. Thats what happened before with technology stocks and home prices. Developing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia fear that falling yields on Treasuries will send money flooding their way in search of higher returns. Such emerging markets could be left vulnerable to a crash if investors later decide to pull out.
China this week unveiled plans to limit the inflow of so-called hot money. Other countries are considering similar controls on capital.